Analyst: Without an extreme black swan event, the $60,000 range is expected to become the bottom of this bear market

BlockBeats News, May 5th, Analyst (@Murphychen888) stated that the trend reversal of Long-Term Holders (LTH) net position usually precedes the Bitcoin price bottom, as the weakening supply-side pressure creates conditions for bottom formation.

Since February 10, 2026, the LTH net position has started to rise, accumulating around 324,000 BTC by April 30. During the same period, the Short-Term Holders (STH) decreased their holdings by 184,000 BTC, some of which converted to new LTH positions. Excluding these conversions, the original LTH actively increased their holdings by about 140,000 BTC, becoming a significant driver of the LTH position growth.

Comparing to historical cycles, in the last bear market, the LTH net position bottomed and rose on July 23, 2022. If not for the FTX scandal-induced panic selling, the price range of $19,000 to $22,000 could have already formed the bottom zone. Similarly, after the LTH position rebounded in July 2019, excluding the '312' extreme event, the $7,000 to $9,000 range became the bottom zone.

With the LTH net position bottoming and rising on February 10, 2026, if no extreme black swan event occurs subsequently, the $62,000 to $65,000 range is likely to become the bottom zone of this bear market, or very close to the bottom.

The increase in LTH net position implies more STH choosing to hold steady, while believers continue to accumulate, inevitably pushing the bottom higher and accelerating the bottoming process. The transformation of the supply-demand relationship is the most critical data to watch in a bear market.