4 smart money bet <span> $26.3 thousand </span> on “No” for “Will Iran close its airspace before May 8th.”

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 4 clever wallets have placed a total of $26.3 thousand on "Will Iran close its airspace before May 8?", with an average buy probability of 83.1%. The current probability of "Yes" is 14.5%.

Wallet 0xb4f2592e has invested $4300, with the best-performing category being Geopolitics, earning a net profit of $44 thousand. Out of 170 settled trades in this category, it has a win rate of 133/170 (78%), with 37 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $1400.

Wallet OSINTReport has invested $9400, with the best-performing category being Politics, earning a net profit of $95.5 thousand. Out of 273 settled trades in this category, it has a win rate of 169/273 (62%), with 102 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.9), the median historical investment amount is $1500.

Wallet 0x5011224f has invested $9200, with the best-performing category being Politics, earning a net profit of $13.6 thousand. Out of 264 settled trades in this category, it has a win rate of 200/264 (76%), with 10 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.9), the median historical investment amount is $1800.

Wallet armageddonrewardsbilly has invested $3300, with the best-performing category being Politics, earning a net profit of $906 thousand. Out of 1689 settled trades in this category, it has a win rate of 1019/1689 (60%), with 117 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.9), the median historical investment amount is $6800.

The market will settle as "Yes" if Iran voluntarily initiates a significant airspace closure for non-weather reasons before May 8 (meaning widespread cancellations, suspensions, or bans on commercial flights within Iran or major airspace areas). Partial flight restrictions, minor delays, airspace closure for specific military exercises, or other countries/airlines avoiding Iranian airspace do not meet the criteria.

The rules also outline a more specific triggering criterion: the market will settle as "Yes" if Iran completely suspends commercial flights in and out of at least two major airports for non-weather reasons. These airports include Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport, Mehrabad Airport, Mashhad International Airport, Shiraz International Airport, and Isfahan International Airport. Conversely, localized airspace restrictions near the Hormuz Strait, suspension of visual flight rules, or airlines voluntarily rerouting flights do not constitute a significant closure.

The U.S. and Israel's attacks on Iran on February 28 previously led to multiple Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, closing or restricting airspace, resulting in widespread cancellations or reroutings of regional flights. As the ceasefire continues, Iran has more frequently implemented localized restrictions rather than nationwide or major regional commercial flight closures. The rules specifically note that Iran's local airspace restrictions due to military exercises around the Hormuz Strait on January 27 do not qualify, nor do the visual flight rules flight suspensions from January 25 to April 25 as they did not involve a broad closure of commercial aviation.

Recent regional aviation updates show that airspace restrictions in neighboring countries are gradually being lifted. On May 2, the UAE announced the lifting of preventative aviation restrictions implemented after the outbreak of conflict following safety and operational assessments, restoring normal air traffic. Kuwait also announced a phased resumption of air traffic on April 24. The current regional trend leans more toward gradual recovery rather than another full-scale closure.

Some traders view such airspace closure markets as an alternative gauge for "conflict markets." Due to compliance and ethical reasons, Polymarket has recently launched fewer "Will Country A strike Country B" markets, so airspace closures, often linked to military escalation, air defense readiness, or airstrike risks, are used for indirect trading on conflict escalation.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not speculating on whether the event will actually occur and exhibits behavior where positions are closed at a certain point in time for profit-taking or stop-loss purposes.

Accounts:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa;
0x77b0b896910b3388e01708521d1f92d1f5c2ba0b;
0x5011224f4848cb2cf2d87cf2b823551dfd0e220e;
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418.