CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April surge was mainly driven by 'speculation,' with a risk of a pullback

BlockBeats News, May 3rd, CryptoQuant's Head of Research Julio Moreno wrote in a report: "The demand for perpetual futures contracts was the sole driver of Bitcoin's price increase in April, while spot apparent demand continued to shrink. This structure has historically appeared in bear markets, and it is often difficult to sustain the uptrend."

Moreno stated that this divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand is one of the clearest on-chain signals, indicating that this rally is more speculative than driven by structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is mainly driven by leverage rather than new inflows of Bitcoin funds.

Moreno also said: "Historically, this type of structure lacks the foundation to support a sustained price increase, and once futures positions start unwinding, it usually corrects through a price pullback."
CryptoQuant stated that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the early 2022 bear market. Although this does not mean that the same result will necessarily occur this time, the current structure does have "significant downside risks."