4Sats Capital Invests $151,500 in "Will MegaETH's Market Cap Exceed $2 Billion the Day After Launch" Poll

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money have invested $151.5k in the question "Will the FDV exceed $2 billion the day after MegaETH launch?", with an average buy-in probability of 73.1%. Currently, the "yes" probability is at 39.5%.

armageddonrewardsbilly has settled 4843 trades with a total profit of $1.6 million. This trade is 70.1 times the median of his historical trades. He has made 8 trades in the MEGAETH market, with a win rate of 38% and a total loss of $25k.
0xdfc983d8 is most active in the FDV-related market with a net profit of $31.2k. He has settled 19 trades in this market with a win rate of 13/19 (68%), including 9 trades with a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell-out price above $0.95. In the similar cost range of $0.601-$0.65, his median historical investment amount is $25.2k.
0xd7eee5e9 is most active in pre-market trades with a net profit of $53.5k. He has settled 240 trades in this market with a win rate of 191/240 (80%), including 62 trades with a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell-out price above $0.95. In the similar cost range of $0.601-$0.75, his median historical investment amount is $670, and this investment is 16.6 times that median.
0xc4567fe2 is most active in pre-market trades with a net profit of $56k. He has settled 370 trades in this market with a win rate of 283/370 (76%), including 67 trades with a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell-out price above $0.95. In the similar cost range of $0.651-$0.8, his median historical investment amount is $882, and this investment is 14.9 times that median.

As of the latest public information, MegaETH has raised approximately $108 million, with the TGE scheduled for April 30th, and the initial circulating supply is expected to be around 10%. Some analysis suggests that the actual initial circulation may be lower.

In terms of airdrops, MegaETH will launch a mainnet incentive airdrop plan accounting for 2.5% of the total token supply. Some reports also mention that this airdrop may be gradually released over 6 to 8 months.

Regarding the tokenomics, the total supply of MEGA is 10 billion tokens. Market data shows that the initial circulating supply at TGE is expected to be around 10%, with some analysis suggesting the actual initial circulation may be lower; venture capital, team, and advisor shares will have a 1-year cliff and 3-year linear release arrangement, with a significant portion of tokens tied to KPI staking and ecosystem development.

Pre-market trading shows that the current price of MEGA is around $0.19, corresponding to an FDV of $1.9 billion.

Note: Based on his past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event, and there is a strategy of taking profits or stop losses at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
0xdfc983d8c361103661167a59df7bb1e8059e7552
0xd7eee5e918dc59fa32386a4ad8a89655946e9597
0xc4567fe2a835b23f40db07f567ba0efbbdc98996

Total Investment: $151.5k
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