The Smart Money has bet $1,300 on "Yes" on whether Jerome Powell will step down as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a clever money has placed a $1,300 bet on "Will Jerome Powell step down as Chair of the Federal Reserve between May 15 and May 22?" with an average buy-in probability of 71.2%. The current "Yes" probability is 86.5%.

nosteinnogate has settled 1,128 trades, with a total profit of $21,000. This trade is 100.8 times their median trade in history.

The market will settle to "Yes" if current Chair Jerome Powell actually ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve Board between May 15 and May 22. An early resignation or removal does not trigger the settlement alone, and the Chair's term naturally expiring does not trigger settlement alone. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on an acting basis before the confirmation or inauguration of a successor, it will not be considered as having stepped down.

May 15 is a key date because it marks the end of Powell's term as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Currently, Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, is advancing through the confirmation process. A key issue that previously stalled Warsh's nomination was a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice into the renovation project at the Federal Reserve's headquarters and Powell's related testimony. A Reuters report on April 24 stated that Washington, D.C. federal prosecutors have closed the criminal investigation into Powell. After Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who previously had reservations, withdrew his opposition, the Warsh nomination process was able to proceed.

The Senate Banking Committee is expected to move forward with Warsh's nomination, followed by a full Senate vote. If Warsh is confirmed and formally assumes office between May 15 and May 22, the handover of the Federal Reserve Chairmanship will occur within that window. If the confirmation process is delayed and Powell continues to act as Chair while waiting for a successor, then that date range will not constitute his actual resignation.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on the outcome event itself but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.

Account:
0xff7ca9cd180d33119e653e3eb50555a3e2ccb233

Total Investment: $1.3k
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