The Four Smart Money bet $71.4 thousand on "No" for "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 clever funds have invested $71.4k in "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?", with an average buy-in probability of 68.7%. The current probability for "Yes" is 29.5%.

SwissMiss is best related to the ceasefire submarket, with a net profit of $205k. Out of 2 settled trades in this submarket, the win rate is 2/2 (100%), with 1 trade having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.

armageddonrewardsbilly is best related to the politics submarket, with a net profit of $882k. Out of 1594 settled trades in this submarket, the win rate is 917/1594 (58%), with 106 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651-$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $6.0k.

ScottyNooo is best related to the politics submarket, with a net profit of $1.4M. Out of 2827 settled trades in this submarket, the win rate is 1324/2827 (47%), with 215 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551-$0.7), the median historical investment amount is $660, and this current investment is 19.6 times that median.

RememberAmalek is best related to the politics submarket, with a net profit of $809k. Out of 616 settled trades in this submarket, the win rate is 441/616 (72%), with 164 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $542, and this current investment is 21.5 times that median.

Due to Trump's dissatisfaction with the latest proposal from Tehran, the market remains cautious as "peace talks remain stagnant." Iran is seeking the US to lift the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the mediators expect Iran to submit a revised proposal in the coming days.

In Iran, wartime power is increasingly concentrated in the hands of the security apparatus and the Revolutionary Guard. Insiders suggest that the empowerment of the Revolutionary Guard will drive a more hardline foreign policy and stricter domestic control. Following the state of war and top-level power shifts, Iran lacks the internal capacity to easily resist this security-first approach, leading to a further reduction in negotiation flexibility between the US and Iran.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of events but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions after opening a position at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0xdbade4c82fb72780a0db9a38f821d8671aba9c95
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
0x6139c42e48cf190e67a0a85d492413b499336b7a

Total Investment: $71.4k
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