Bitcoin Longs Eager for Reentry Above $80,000, Recent Macro Data Does Not Strongly Support Bullish Sentiment

BlockBeats News, April 28th. Bitcoin fell from above $79,000 this week to $76,500. The rebound since the end of March's drop below $65,000 has stalled. Those hoping for a quick return to an upward trend need to be aware that recent economic data does not support a significant bullish move. The most important data is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. The April consumer confidence index fell to a record low of 49.8, driven primarily by inflation pressure related to the Iran conflict. Inflation expectations have also surged, with the one-year gauge jumping from 3.8% in the previous month to 4.8% in April. Long-term inflation expectations (five to ten years) rose to 3.5%, the highest since October 2025.

Inflation expectations may become self-fulfilling. As a result, central banks such as the Federal Reserve closely monitor and attempt to anchor inflation expectations. This sharp increase may limit the Fed's ability to signal rate cuts or liquidity easing in the near term, as further monetary easing carries the risk of reinforcing inflation pressures. This hawkish stance could in turn suppress the upside potential of BTC and other risk assets or slow down gains. A Bitfinex analyst said, "For the Fed, changes in long-term inflation expectations are a more dangerous data point. This is the most important variable for the central bank when evaluating whether inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. Such a large change in a month raises the threshold for any recent shift to easing, even if the real economy is weakening marginally."

The Fed is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.5% to 3.75% this Wednesday. Meanwhile, traders are also pricing in a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan in June. BRN Research Director Timothy Misir said in an email, "Based on the current market sentiment, a rate hike this month looks unlikely. Financial bets show that the Eurozone and the UK may see two or more rate hikes before the end of the year. The June rate hike is almost fully priced in. We currently lack the data clarity needed to make a sound decision, which is the main obstacle." On the crypto front, continued ETF inflows are crucial to maintaining support for spot BTC during pullbacks.