According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 24 minutes ago, a clever money placed a $1.7k bet on "Will Iran agree to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?" choosing "No," with an average buy probability of 77.0%. The current probability for "Yes" stands at 22.5%.
The address 0xf9c1190a is most relevant to this market's Geopolitics category, with a net profit of $7.1k. It has had a 100% success rate in the 5 settled trades in this category, all of which were end-of-day positions with a probability of over 90% at the time of purchase.
For this market to resolve as "Yes," Iran must publicly agree to transfer, export, or place its enriched uranium stockpile or any part thereof under the control of an entity outside of Iran and its sphere of influence by the end of June 30.
On April 17, former President Trump told Reuters that the U.S. would work with Iran to "retrieve" its enriched uranium and ultimately transfer it to the United States.
As of now, the Iranian position publicly remains unwilling to accept the demand to "hand over the stockpile." In a report dated April 17 by Reuters, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the enriched uranium would remain within Iran. The latest Iranian proposal did not make a direct concession on the nuclear issue but instead suggested reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the war, and postponing the nuclear talks to a later stage.
Account:
0xf9c1190aa8184bcbe418e6f5321c53b0bfbc39e2
Total Investment: $1.7k
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