This Week’s Spotlight: Trump Manipulates the Market + Escalation of US-Iran Standoff, 15-Minute “God Tier Short” Triggers Insider Investigation

BlockBeats News, April 25th. Geopolitics and macroeconomics have become the core drivers of the market this week. The US-Iran standoff continues to impact oil prices and global risk assets. The unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz and a shift in negotiations towards a "permanent ceasefire" have heightened risk aversion, leading to fluctuations in the US dollar and oil prices.

On the market front, Trump's influence on market sentiment has significantly strengthened. Data shows that during his second term, most of the largest single-day gains and losses in the US stock market have been driven by his policies. Traders are engaged in a game around his "flip-flop" policy rhythm, and the market pricing logic has become distinctly "Trumpized."

Of particular note is the precise "front-running" trading that has occurred in the oil market: within the 15 minutes before a ceasefire or policy shift, a concentrated appearance of short positions totaling hundreds of millions of dollars successfully bet on a sharp downturn. Over a month, the cumulative scale amounted to approximately $2.6 billion, prompting US regulators to investigate insider trading.

On the monetary policy front, the US Department of Justice suddenly dropped the investigation into Powell, clearing the way for Wosh to succeed as the Fed Chair. During the hearing, Wosh emphasized that he would not be a "rate-cutting puppet" but advocated for driving institutional reforms.

Asset performance has shown significant differentiation: oil prices have unilaterally strengthened due to supply shocks, while gold and silver have come under pressure. US stocks have reached new highs amid volatility, intensifying structural divergence. The depreciation of the yen is nearing intervention levels.

Other key developments include: Tesla increasing its capital expenditure to $250 billion to bet on AI and robotics; DeepSeek releasing the V4 model and rumors of Tencent and Alibaba planning to invest at a valuation of over $20 billion; OpenAI launching GPT-5.5 to accelerate commercialization.

Overall, with the overlay of geopolitical conflicts and policy uncertainty, the market has entered a high-volatility normalcy, shifting its trading logic from being "macro-data-driven" to "event and power-driven."