According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 whales have invested $15.7 thousand in the question "Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?", with the current probability of "Yes" at 62.0%.
Out of these 3 whales, 0x8072e357 has a win rate of 62% in the Iran category, with a total profit of $19 thousand; Car has a win rate of 67% in the geopolitics category, with a total profit of $557 thousand; Huludubu has a win rate of 70% in the geopolitics category, with a total profit of $191 thousand.
Today, as Trump orders the U.S. military to take a tougher stance against Iranian boats, he also announces that the mine-clearing operation in the Strait of Hormuz will be "tripled," with the U.S. preparing for future navigation conditions to be restored.
The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 20% of the global liquid oil consumption flow rate and about 20% of the global LNG supply. Disruptions from the Iran conflict and the Hormuz shipping route are driving up U.S. corporate input and output prices. Supply delays are exacerbating the situation, leading economists to predict accelerated inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates.
Disclaimer: Based on their past trading behavior, it is inferred that these traders are not betting on whether the event will actually occur, as they may take profits or stop losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Accounts:
0x8072e357dcfed151a7804026b70a4364dd9a0ef3;
0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b;
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65.
