2 smart contract accounts staked $183.7k, believing the US will not invade Iran before 2027

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money accounts have bet $183.7 thousand on "Will the US invade Iran by 2027?" with the current probability of "Yes" at 31%.

Out of these 2 smart money accounts, aenews2 has a win rate of 52% in the politics category, with a total profit of $4.1 million; Eatpraylove has a win rate of 57% in the politics category, with a total profit of $354 thousand.

The US has expressed a "no deadline" attitude towards extending the ceasefire. Although the current stalemate has intensified tensions in the Hormuz Strait, the diplomatic route remains open. Currently, diplomatic mediation is still seen as the main approach by the US. On Polymarket, the probability of the US and Iran holding diplomatic talks before May is 44%. If recent US-Iran diplomatic talks resume, the expectation of negotiations may further reduce the probability of the US escalating military action against Iran.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, these traders are not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behaviors at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1;
0xc02147dee42356b7a4edbb1c35ac4ffa95f61fa8.