BlockBeats News, April 22nd. According to multiple sources, U.S. President Trump has agreed to only a 3 to 5-day extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, rather than the long-term arrangement previously expected by the market. The extension is aimed at providing a final window for a new round of negotiations. Pakistani officials stated that the second round of talks could restart within 36 to 72 hours, but Iranian officials responded through the Tasnim News Agency saying they have not yet decided whether to participate in Friday's talks.
The core issue hindering the current negotiations is the internal power struggle in Iran: the hardline faction represented by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is openly at odds with the civilian government on key issues, even vetoing the existing negotiation outcomes. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not made a public statement for a long time, creating a lack of a final decision-making authority in the negotiations.
The U.S. assessment is that although a diplomatic resolution is still possible, if Iran fails to form a unified stance within the deadline, military options will be back on the table. Currently, the U.S. is using the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a primary negotiation leverage, continuously pressuring Iran to return to the negotiating table.
Analysts point out that this "short-term ceasefire + high-pressure negotiation" strategy reflects the White House's desire to quickly disengage from the conflicts in the Middle East. However, the internal disarray in Iran may be the greatest uncertainty leading to a breakdown in the negotiations.
