QCP: Bitcoin's current round of rebound is more driven by risk reduction than fundamental improvement

BlockBeats News, April 22nd, QCP released a market view stating that BTC rebounded from an overnight low of around $75,000 to near $78,000, but this trend more so reflects position unwinding rather than a reestablishment of confidence. The market reduced the risk of recent escalation after the Iran ceasefire extension, while Powell's testimony reinforced the Fed's position of relying more on data for decision-making but did not provide a signal of a dovish shift. Risk sentiment has stabilized, but macro-level pressure remains strong.

For cryptocurrency, BTC's rebound is more driven by reduced tail risks rather than fundamental improvement. Open interest has been rebuilt, and the funding rate is still negative, indicating new short entries rather than long capitulation. This maintains the squeeze dynamic, but market conviction remains shallow.

The options market also sent out a similar signal. Front-end volatility is around 40 vol, relatively low compared to realized volatility; skew still leans towards downside protection; the term structure only shows a mild upward slope. Positioning continues to point to a range-bound state rather than a sustained breakout.

QCP believes that the future path remains anchored to oil prices and policy direction. A fall in oil prices or a clearer signal from the Fed will support risk assets. Without these factors, the market is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode, pricing for uncertainty rather than seeking definitive solutions.