Four Smart Money accounts collectively invested $57.8 thousand to predict that the US and Iran will reach a permanent peace agreement by May.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money accounts have collectively put in $57.8k to predict "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before May?" with the current probability of "Yes" at 39%.

Among these 4 smart money accounts, 0x1521b47b has a win rate of 71% in the politics category, with a total profit of $598k; eightpenguins has a win rate of 73% in the politics category, with a total profit of $127k; 0x4478d7bd has a win rate of 67% in the geopolitics category, with a total profit of $88k; Parz1vaI has a win rate of 75% in the politics category, with a total profit of $127k.

One significant reason for the oil price drop is the market's expectation that US-Iran negotiations may progress this week. The market remains interested in observing the "negotiations to end the Iran war," but the actual implementation still "remains doubtful."

As the two-week ceasefire nears its end, Iran is considering joining peace talks with the United States. According to Financial Times analysis, although both Iran and the US want a peace agreement, the current "Iran crisis has not yet peaked."

Note: Based on their past trading patterns, it is assessed that this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, and there is a behavior of taking profits or stopping losses at a certain time after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x1521b47bf0c41f6b7fd3ad41cdec566812c8f23e
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461

Total Investment: $57.8k
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