5 Smart Money accounts each investing $203.4k believe the Iran-US conflict will be resolved by April 15th.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 5 accounts have collectively wagered $203.4 thousand on the outcome of "Will the Iran and Israel/US conflict end before April 15?" The current probability of "Yes" is 80%.

Among these 5 accounts, nojnn has a win rate of 73% in the Geopolitics category, with a total profit of $342 thousand; scottilicious has a win rate of 86% in the Politics category, with a total profit of $1.2 million; denizz has a win rate of 68% in the Politics category, with a total profit of $1.3 million; and 0x2974bd00 has a win rate of 82% in the Geopolitics category, with a total profit of $311 thousand.

Based on the latest post by Trump on April 19, the US Navy carried out a forced interdiction on an Iranian cargo ship named "TOUSKA" in the Gulf of Oman. The ship is currently under the US Treasury sanctions list due to its past illicit activities.

After the TOUSKA ignored the US Navy's Sprouance destroyer's stop warning and attempted to forcefully break the blockade, the US military opened fire, penetrating the ship's engine room. Currently, this nearly 900-foot-long giant cargo ship has been fully taken over by the US Marine Corps and is undergoing boarding and search operations.

The US originally planned to advance negotiations aimed at "consolidating peace" in Islamabad, but Iran threatened retaliation over the ship seizure incident and withdrew from the upcoming talks, rendering these negotiations "seemingly unlikely to proceed."

Iran has characterized this US action as a violation of the ceasefire. While diplomatic channels between the two sides still exist, some analysts interpret this US action as a routine pressure tactic by Trump for negotiations. Lebanese officials still anticipate that a ceasefire with Israel is imminent.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event, and may exhibit profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x7f9e2d1df78614564a70becc7fa14aa9a6623a0e;
0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e;
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73;
0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23;
0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145.