Next Week's Macro Outlook: Focus on US-Iran Negotiation and Fed Personnel Changes, Middle East Tensions Roil Markets

BlockBeats News, April 18th. Over the past week, the global market saw a significant rebound driven by easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran briefly announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid drop in oil prices. Risk assets surged, with US stocks hitting a new high, the US dollar weakening, and gold approaching the $1900 mark. However, Iran later signaled "still under military control," coupled with the US maintaining sanctions on Iran, escalating market concerns over the situation.

On a macro level, the key variable next week remains the US-Iran negotiation progress. President Trump stated that negotiations may progress over the weekend, warning that if no agreement is reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end and the risk of conflict resuming exists. Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has shifted from pricing in "conflict escalation" to "de-escalation path," but any sudden changes could still trigger intense asset volatility.

On the interest rate expectation front, the retreat in energy prices has eased inflation pressure, leading the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut this year to rise to about 60%. Meanwhile, Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it is dovish) will be a key variable affecting gold and risk assets.

Tuesday 8:30 pm, US March Retail Sales MoM;

Thursday 8:30 pm, US Initial Jobless Claims up to April 18th;

Thursday 9:45 pm, US April Markit Manufacturing/Services PMI Flash;

Friday 10:00 pm, US April University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Final, 1-year Inflation Expectations Final;

In the short term, the market's focus will revolve around three key variables: US-Iran negotiation progress, oil price trends, and Fed policy signals.