5 Smart Money accounts contributed $199,700, believing that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would return to normal by May.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 5 accounts have collectively wagered $199.7 thousand on "Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by May?" The current probability of "Yes" is 28%.

Among these 5 accounts, denizz has a win rate of 65% in the Geopolitics category with total winnings of $593 thousand; mr.ozi has a win rate of 72% in the Geopolitics category with total winnings of $94 thousand; Fernandoinfante has total winnings of $401 thousand in the Iran category; betwick has a win rate of 64% in the Geopolitics category with total winnings of $358 thousand; idfinsider0228 has a win rate of 58% in the Geopolitics category with total winnings of $124 thousand.

On the 17th, the Associated Press reported that with a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon as the main theme, broader US-Iran negotiations are also advancing. The discussions include "maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz." The current US strategy is to increase pressure on Iran's oil shipping and financial network, with the core aim of forcing Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, it is assessed that these traders are not betting on the actual outcome of the event; they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior after opening a position at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73;
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546;
0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95;
0xc851cd9bee7d262afd78674f861f9f576a12cd2a;
0x2b76c1d12cd928b1d95a6d2c7f1e6f6e7f14edef.