Analyst: Asserting Bitcoin's New Bull Run Is Now "Premature"

BlockBeats News, April 17th, according to Cointelegraph's report, despite Bitcoin briefly surpassing $76,000 during Wednesday's session, Glassnode analysts pointed out that on-chain data indicates it is still too early to declare the start of a new bull market. Glassnode analyst CryptoViz.art measured the average holding cost of active Bitcoin investors using the "True Market Mean" (TMM). Since Bitcoin fell below this metric on January 31st, it has remained below for 75 days, with active holders experiencing an average unrealized loss of up to 20%, currently sitting at around 5% below that level. The TMM is currently at $78,013, and crossing back above this level is a key point for active investors to return to a profitable state.

The analyst referenced 10 similar cases of breaking below since 2016, with durations ranging from 2 days to over 11 months. The deepest declines were seen in the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 cycles, with a maximum drop of 57%. He stated: "75 days are still in the early stage. In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the trend only bottomed out in the 5th to 9th month—this signal is not a 'safe signal' but needs to be closely monitored."

Regarding fund flows, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the market cap to realized cap 365-day growth rate has been negative for 105 consecutive trading days, currently at -0.000652, indicating the market has failed to attract sufficient new funds to support a price rise. The 30-day realized cap change is similarly weak, with only 7 days of net inflows recorded throughout 2026, all concentrated in mid-January; after January 23rd, it has remained negative, although it has slightly improved from a low point around -0.54% in early April to -0.32%. Since the beginning of the year, the realized cap has dropped from $1.12 trillion to $1.08 trillion, a decline of 3.23%. Adler Jr. stated that the recent improvement only indicates a slowdown in capital outflows, not a bullish reversal, and both indicators need to turn positive simultaneously and be sustained to confirm a trend reversal.