Netanyahu Rejects Ceasefire Proposal, 3 Smart Money Addresses Predict Israel and Hezbollah Will Cease Fire This Month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts have wagered $6,000 on the question "Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah by April 30, 2026?" predicting "Yes," with the current probability of "Yes" at 65.8%.

Among these 3 accounts, the account 0xc84f7e76 has an 80% win rate in the Geopolitics category, with a total profit of $43,000; cashy has a 73% win rate in the Geopolitics category, with a total profit of $442,000; RememberAmalek has a 77% win rate in the Geopolitics category, with a total profit of $311,000.

Shortly after this channel reported suspicious insider account buy orders yesterday, official sources began releasing news of "Israeli Security Cabinet holding a special meeting to discuss ceasefire plan," causing the probability of "Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on 4/15" to peak at 80% one hour after the announcement.

However, due to Netanyahu's insistence on continuing military action against Hezbollah, the proposed ceasefire did not materialize. Netanyahu reiterated after the meeting that there are no immediate signs of a ceasefire, and the IDF will continue its offensive in southern Lebanon.

On April 15, Trump posted on Truth Social that he is working to secure "breathing space" for Israel and Lebanon, noting that the two countries' leadership has not had direct talks in 34 years.

Iran has made it clear in its communication with the US that Israel's cessation of military strikes against Hezbollah is one of the prerequisites for bilateral consensus. Iranian Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf openly called for a ceasefire in Lebanon on April 10, signaling some moderation while emphasizing resistance.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, it is inferred that this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event, but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening positions.

Accounts:
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0x8f42ae0a01c0383c7ca8bd060b86a645ee74b88f
0x6139c42e48cf190e67a0a85d492413b499336b7a

Total Wager: $6.0k
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