The US and Iran are gradually reaching a framework agreement to end the war, with a permanent peace agreement by the end of May increasingly likely.

BlockBeats News, April 15th, according to AXIOS, two U.S. officials stated that U.S.-Iran negotiation representatives made progress during a meeting on Tuesday local time, moving towards a framework agreement to end the war. One U.S. official stated that the Trump negotiation team (U.S. Vice President Pence, Middle East Envoy Brian Hook, Trump Senior Advisor Kushner) continued to hold phone calls with Iran and the mediator, exchanging drafts, and are "close to the target." Another official stated: "We want an agreement, some in Iran want one too, the key is to get the entire Iranian government on board."

In addition, sources mentioned that if a framework agreement is reached, an extension of the ceasefire would be needed to discuss the details. "The details are complex and cannot be completed within two days."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "U.S.-Iran Permanent Peace Agreement Timeframe" before April 22nd is 27%, before April 30th is 42%, and before May 31st is 60%.