Bitunix Analyst: Inflation Pass-Through Confirmed but Demand Side Not Keeping Pace, Policy Divergence Increasing, Liquidity Repricing Under Expectation Mismatch
BlockBeats News, April 15th. Data shows that inflationary pressures continue to spread upstream from energy, but the demand side has not caught up yet, leading to a noticeable mismatch between policy expectations and market pricing. The March PPI rose to 4%, reaching a record high, further confirming that energy costs are being transmitted along the supply chain to the production side. However, the core PPI remains moderate, consistent with the previous CPI structure, indicating that the current inflation is still "cost-driven" rather than "demand-driven." This has left the market facing a key contradiction: inflation exists, but it is not sufficient to support a full-scale tightening; the economy has not significantly weakened, but it is also not enough to support easing.
From a policy signal perspective, divergences are rapidly widening. On the one hand, Federal Reserve officials lean towards maintaining high interest rates in the long term or even postponing the timing of rate cuts (some views extending to 2027), reflecting vigilance against runaway inflation expectations. On the other hand, on the fiscal side, pressure is beginning to shift monetary policy, with Brainard explicitly advocating for faster rate cuts and hinting that tariffs may return in July, implying that future "tariff + energy" double cost pressures may simultaneously impact inflation. This internal policy inconsistency makes it difficult for the market to form stable expectations, leading funds to shift towards short-term event-driven and hedge allocations.
The cross-market structure is also gradually becoming clear: high energy prices → PPI uptrend → subsequent CPI pressure → expectation of sustained high rates. However, the IMF has simultaneously downgraded its global growth forecast to 3.1%, indicating a weakening on the demand side. This combination of "unresolved inflation + growth downgrade" is gradually pushing the market closer to a stagflation framework but has not fully entered it yet. Consequently, funds are oscillating between "inflation trades" and "recession trades," causing the sources of volatility to become more unstable.
Returning to the crypto market, BTC has now entered a phase of repeated game-playing in a high liquidity zone. Looking at the liquidation distribution, the 75,000–77,000 range is the main short pressure and liquidation zone, with untriggered high-density liquidity still present above (extending to around 78,000 above 77,000), indicating that once breached, a liquidation-driven passive uptrend will dominate. However, the current price has failed to stabilize above after multiple tests, indicating insufficient active buying pressure. A short-term structural support has formed near 74,000, with the more critical support zone still in the 70,800–72,000 range. If the price falls back to this range, it will retest the market's true willingness to support.
