The Smart Money account has invested nearly $100,000, believing that the Iran-US conflict will end by April 15th.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts have wagered $99.8k on the question "Will the Iran and Israel/US conflict end by April 15?" with the current probability of "Yes" at 80.5%.

Among these 4 accounts, denizz has a win rate of 67% in the Politics category with a total profit of $80.7k; 0x5011224f has a win rate of 75% in the Geopolitics category with a total profit of $44k; 0x5afe3dd8 has a win rate of 92% in the Politics category with a total profit of $16k; nojnn has a win rate of 73% in the Geopolitics category with a total profit of $26.5k.

A second round of talks between the US and Iran may resume in Pakistan in the "next two days"; Trump told the media the negotiating team is "more inclined to go there," while Vice President Pence bluntly stated that the mutual distrust "cannot be resolved overnight."

Per the event rules, as long as there is a period of "14 consecutive days without qualifying military activity" that starts within the window of the sub-event, the market will resolve to "Yes."

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
0x5011224f4848cb2cf2d87cf2b823551dfd0e220e
0x5afe3dd82317090c2f2eae0370049878669caf69
0x7f9e2d1df78614564a70becc7fa14aa9a6623a0e

Total Wagered: $99.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN for early insights.