Tom Lee: War has a net positive impact on the U.S. economy, and the market has already begun to price in a favorable outcome

BlockBeats News, April 15th, Tom Lee, Chairman of the Ethereum Treasury Company BitMine, stated in an interview with CNBC, "The reason the stock market remains resilient is because even in the face of war, the economy is actually performing better than expected." He pointed out that current defense spending is approximately $30 billion per month and may increase to $60 billion per month in the future, providing a significant stimulus to the economy; meanwhile, with oil prices rising by $20 per month, it only adds about $12 billion burden to households. "Overall, war is currently actually helping corporate profits."

Tom Lee cited historical precedent, saying, "Looking back at World War II, the stock market bottomed in May 1942, only 5 months after the U.S. entered the war, at a time when no American troops had even set foot on the European or Pacific battlefield." He believes, "The market is very good at digesting results in advance. The current rise in the stock market indicates that the market is pricing in a favorable outcome, although I cannot clearly explain the specific reasons, this is the signal the market is conveying."

Regarding the three major variables in the current market—Iran war, corporate earnings, and interest rates—Tom Lee said, "Of the three, only war can create tail events in two directions, so this is the most important variable to watch closely." In terms of sector allocation, he continues to be bullish on the energy sector and points out that energy security is one of the most important structural themes in recent years.