Energy Crisis! Final Pre-War Batch of Hormuz Oil Tankers About to Arrive, Global Supply Shortage Enters Countdown

BlockBeats News, April 14th, as the United States formally imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, a key milestone is approaching—the final batch of oil tankers that departed from the strait before the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28th is set to arrive at refineries around the world in the coming days, analysts warn, signaling a new phase in the global oil shortage crisis.

According to the Financial Times, the final pre-war cargo is expected to arrive in Malaysia and Australia by April 20th, and the final batch of cargo bound for the United States will also berth by the end of this week. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that Denmark received the final batch of aviation fuel from Kuwait over the weekend. Energy Aspects analyst Nick Dale cautioned, "When all the goods purchased by Asia leave the Atlantic Basin, the impact will reach the West in a month. Refineries in Europe and the United States will also be forced to cut production starting next month."

The physical market has already come under pressure. North Sea Forties crude oil prices surged to nearly $149 per barrel on Monday, hitting a new high since the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, while Brent crude futures traded at around $100 per barrel. JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva said that European and Asian refineries are fiercely competing for remaining cargoes, with the spot crude price premium over futures reaching a record high.

According to Energy Aspects data, the average daily arrival of Middle Eastern oil (excluding Iran) in Asia in the first two weeks of April has dropped to 4 million barrels, well below the normal level of 13.4 million barrels. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne warned on Monday that if the blockade lasts more than three months, there will be a "serious supply problem" with aviation fuel, diesel, and liquefied natural gas, which may necessitate rationing.

The crisis has triggered a chain reaction in multiple countries. The Philippines, which relies on the Middle East for over 95% of its oil imports, declared a national energy emergency after local gasoline prices doubled; Indonesia and Vietnam have instructed people to work from home; Australia has tapped into fuel reserves, cut fuel taxes, and launched a national fuel security plan. The United Nations Development Programme warns that due to the triple shock of energy and food price hikes and economic downturn, as many as 32.5 million people could fall into poverty.