Account that Leveraged Ceasefire Prediction to Turn $60.8K Into 55x Believes Trump Will Announce End of Military Action Against Iran Within 3 Days

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the Polymarket prediction market, an account has wagered $60,800 on "Will Trump announce an end to the military action against Iran before the 15th of this month?" with the current probability of "Yes" at 2.8%.

This account had previously accurately predicted a ceasefire event, realizing over 55x profit. When the ceasefire probability was only 1.75% on April 3rd, they invested $1,450 in a single bet, ultimately profiting nearly $80,000.

Since the US-Iran ceasefire on April 7th, the actual developments have significantly reduced the expectations of an immediate cessation of hostilities. US Vice President JD Vance formally declared the breakdown of high-level talks with the Iranian side in Islamabad, Pakistan on the 11th, with the US delegation leaving without Iran accepting the core conditions.

Account:
0xcdc537db3ca793e6e3464fc42c9099ede6aaafc9.