Trump Plans to Blockade the Strait of Hormuz to Pressure Iran, Experts Warn of Difficult Implementation and Potential Retaliatory Escalation

BlockBeats News, April 13th, U.S. President Trump proposed to implement a maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Iran to make concessions in negotiations. The U.S. Central Command stated that the blockade would target vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports and has set a start time.

Several security and military experts have pointed out that a maritime blockade is essentially an act of war, requiring a large amount of naval power to maintain long-term, lacking a clear end path, posing high execution difficulty, and doubtful sustainability. Dana Stroul stated that this action would be difficult to accomplish alone and may be hard to sustain in the medium to long term.

Analysis suggests that this move may trigger reciprocal retaliation from Iran. Former U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Gary Roughhead warned that Iran may attack Gulf shipping or U.S. military installations in the Middle East, escalating the regional conflict further.

In addition, the blockade faces complex practical issues during execution, including whether to intercept or even sink third-country oil tankers and how to handle energy transport involving U.S. allies. Mark Warner also questioned the actual effectiveness of this strategy, pointing out that Iran could still counteract through mining or asymmetric means.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil shipments, and geopolitical risks have driven a sharp increase in oil prices. The market generally believes that if the situation remains tense, it will further exacerbate inflationary pressures and disrupt global energy and financial markets.