Analyst: US-Iran Deal Failure Could See Bitcoin Fall to $65,000

BlockBeats News, April 12th, according to Forbes report, after 21 hours of negotiation, U.S. Vice President Pence stated that no agreement was reached as Iran refused to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. President Trump had previously warned that if the negotiation failed, a "total destruction" would be carried out on Iran. The Iran conflict has caused fluctuations in the crypto market for weeks, compounded by the tariff crisis. Earlier this month, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $70,000. Prior to the start of the negotiation, crypto analysts stated: if an agreement is reached, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $80,000; if the negotiation collapses, it may fall to $65,000.

On the bullish side, on-chain wallet data shows that the largest Bitcoin whale continues to buy, not sell, during the most intense geopolitical turmoil. The logic behind this is: if the conflict further escalates leading to disruption of oil supply in the Persian Gulf, causing oil price hikes, inflation rises, and the Fed postpones rate cuts, in this context, scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold often perform well. On the bearish side, gold trader and long-time Bitcoin bear Peter Schiff stated that as the conflict intensifies, investors will flee from Bitcoin to gold. Peter Schiff predicts a "collapse" in Bitcoin, stating that gold is the only true safe-haven asset in times of war, and further suggests that insiders in the administration may be profiting from the volatility surrounding the conflict-related news. If Trump fulfills his "total destruction" threat, the stock market and the crypto market will almost certainly be sold off simultaneously.

Regarding further developments, Pence remained firm in a press conference but did not rule out the possibility of continuing the negotiation. The Iranian Parliament Speaker requested a Lebanon ceasefire and asset unfreezing as prerequisites to participate in formal negotiations. For Bitcoin traders, the key for the next 72 hours revolves around two questions: whether the ceasefire agreement can hold and whether Trump will escalate the conflict. There are still whale wallets continuously buying at the current price level, indicating that at least some large investors are betting on the situation stabilizing.