BlockBeats News, April 11th. On the 11th, delegations from the United States and Iran officially began negotiations in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. However, from the public stance of both sides, the three core issues almost all touch upon each other's red lines, making the negotiation prospects full of variables.
Hormuz Strait is a key precondition for the ceasefire agreement and the most directly divisive issue. Trump has demanded a "comprehensive, immediate, and secure" opening, while Iran insists that passage must be coordinated with its armed forces. After the ceasefire was announced, Iran has tightened passage controls twice, and it is currently reported to be requesting a $1 per barrel navigation fee from passing oil tankers. If the United States accepts any form of Iranian control over the strait, analysts generally believe that it would constitute a "strategic failure."
On the Iranian Uranium Enrichment issue, both sides have drawn their red lines with no intersection. The U.S. demands that Iran completely abandon uranium enrichment, calling it a "non-negotiable bottom line," with the Secretary of Defense even threatening "military seizure" if Iran refuses. Iran insists on retaining a certain level of uranium enrichment activities. From a technical standpoint, multiple experts have pointed out that if underground nuclear facilities are not dealt with by ground forces, they are actually difficult to forcibly eliminate.
The Lebanese Hezbollah issue involves whether the U.S. can effectively constrain Israel. Iran insists that Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire agreement, but Israel immediately launched a large-scale airstrike on Lebanon after the U.S. and Iran announced the ceasefire, with Trump later stating that Lebanon is not covered by the ceasefire. Analysts point out that U.S.-Israeli interests are not entirely aligned, and if the "Israeli variable" cannot be handled properly, the stability of the ceasefire will continue to be eroded.
Malley, former Iran Special Envoy to the White House, bluntly stated that the ceasefire between the two sides this time was hastily reached without any substantive concessions, the negotiation foundation is extremely fragile, and it is "very difficult to know what to do next."
