Analyst: Bitcoin Still Faces Oil Price Shock and Inflation Test, Macro Uncertainty Continues to Impact Market

BlockBeats News, April 10th, according to The Block, Bitcoin saw a rise this week, with a gain of about 8% over the past week, reaching $72,267; Ethereum also saw a gain of about 7.8% during the same period, and several altcoins experienced a rebound. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $358 million on April 9th, and the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of around $85 million (according to Farside data).

However, analysts generally point out that the market has not yet shaken off the volatility driven by geopolitical and interest rate factors. QCP Capital stated that the core insight of this week is that a ceasefire does not equate to a full return of risk appetite; while crude oil has absorbed some of the war premium, it is not enough to alleviate inflationary pressure, and the market is still far from pricing in a smooth recovery. Simon Massabni, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, stated that Bitcoin is at a crossroads between the Strait of Hormuz and Wall Street, with geopolitical tensions and institutional caution shaping the future direction.

In terms of inflation, the March CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, higher than February's 2.4%, with the main driver being the increase in energy costs, slightly below the market's expectation of 3.4%; the core CPI recorded a 2.6% year-on-year increase, also lower than the expected 2.7%. Kyle Rodda, Senior Financial Market Analyst at Capital.com, stated that the market is still trading on every ceasefire and war headline, but the importance of inflation data has increased as it provides the first tangible reading of how energy shocks are transmitting through the U.S. economy.

On the options market front, Maxime Seiler, CEO of STS Digital, stated that the summer trend priced by implied volatility is calmer compared to the recent realized volatility; downside protection is still relatively expensive compared to upside options, with institutions continuing to sell covered call options, dampening upward enthusiasm and causing Bitcoin to show a "reluctant but not fully confident" upward trend.