According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, four smart money accounts have placed a total of $69.9k on the "no" side of "Will the Iran vs. US/Israel conflict end by 4/7?" with the current probability of "yes" at 41%.
Per market rules, settlement for "yes" requires a continuous 14-day window at any time before the event-specified deadline with no qualifying military actions, so if the 4/7 branch is resolved as "yes," a 14-day window with no eligible military actions must have started no later than 4/7.
Reuters considers the current two-week ceasefire agreement to be "on thin ice." Reasons include ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon, Tehran simultaneously accusing Israel and the US of violating the agreement, and stating that continuing negotiations under these circumstances would be "unthinkable."
Accounts:
0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708
0x31122ac82dbc392a53c9d0a8b8f15322f0c509a8
0x62b74d98af598c0b96405d3946e19f9f650b3474
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
Total Stake: $69.9k
---------------------------------
Get a glimpse of the future, follow @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
