Bitunix Analyst：FOMC Minutes Show Inflation Persistence and Policy Lag Resonating,Markets Enter「Extended Rate Ceiling」Pricing Phase

BlockBeats News, April 9th, despite a phased ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the market has not returned to a stable equilibrium. Instead, it has shifted into a more complex structure where supply shocks have not fully dissipated, while demand remains resilient, passively extending the duration of elevated inflation. Fed watcher Nick Timiraos noted that the signal is clear: the end of active conflict does not reduce policy difficulty, but instead places the Federal Reserve in a constrained middle ground where it can neither ease nor tighten further with confidence.

From a policy perspective, the FOMC minutes have explicitly rejected the narrative that「war equals a trigger for rate cuts.」Instead, policy is constrained by three structural factors: delayed tariff pass-through, energy prices feeding into core inflation, and the risk of long-term inflation expectations becoming re-anchored at higher levels. While the ceasefire reduces the tail risk of uncontrolled energy price spikes, it also removes recession as the final trigger that could force a policy pivot. As a result, policy is more likely to remain restrictive for longer, shifting market focus from「timing of rate cuts」to「duration of high rates.」

Across markets, the recent rebound in risk assets is not driven by fundamental improvement, but by a repricing of extreme risk removal. Energy prices are no longer surging, but also unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels. This「high-level stabilization」continues to erode corporate margins and consumer purchasing power. At the same time, financial conditions are marginally easing due to improved risk sentiment, creating a combination that is actually more unfavorable for inflation. The result is a lower probability of recession but higher inflation pressure, forcing policy adjustments to be delayed.

In crypto markets, BTC』s recent move higher is best understood as liquidity replenishment following risk release, rather than a trend driven by new capital inflows. Liquidation maps show dense liquidity and resistance around 73,000–73,300, where price failed to sustain after a breakout attempt, indicating insufficient follow-through demand. The 70,100–69,800 range has become the current core zone of rotation and consolidation. On the downside, stronger support and long liquidation clusters are forming between 66,600–64,800. The overall structure reflects a typical symmetric pattern of「liquidity above attracting longs, liquidity below providing support.」As long as macro uncertainty remains unresolved, BTC continues to act as a function of risk appetite rather than an independent trend driver.