Wintermute Weekly Update: Geopolitical Tensions Drive Market Sentiment, Bitcoin Sees 2% Weekly Gain Holding Key $67,000 Support
BlockBeats News, April 7th, Wintermute released its latest weekly report stating that, on the macro level, last week the market was entirely driven by geopolitical news: on Tuesday, the Iranian president signaled a ceasefire, leading to a around 2.9% surge in the S&P 500 and Brent crude oil falling to $105; however, on Wednesday, Trump delivered a tough speech, pledging "very severe" action against Iran in 2-3 weeks and expressing no intention to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing WTI crude oil to spike over 11% to above $111 on Thursday, with Asian markets plummeting significantly. On Sunday, Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants on Tuesday, while also stating it is "highly likely" to reach an agreement by Monday. It is reported that a 45-day ceasefire framework is under discussion.
The current 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose to 4.36% (up 40bp since the conflict began), swap market pricing indicates zero probability of a rate cut at the April 28-29 Fed meeting. PCE data will be released on Thursday, with the market watching whether the oil price shock will transmit to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
Regarding digital assets, Bitcoin only rose by 2.0% last week, with a Fear and Greed Index at 9 (extreme fear) and social sentiment at its most bearish level since the conflict began. Institutional buying pressure remains key, with ETFs seeing a net inflow of $1.32 billion in March (the strongest since October 2025), Strategy adding 44,000 BTC, and Morgan Stanley receiving approval to launch a spot ETF at a 14bp fee rate. However, ETFs saw outflows of $414 million in the last week of March, exchange whale ratio rising from 0.34 to 0.79 since January, and OTC trading data also showing institutions shifting from buying to net selling to neutrality. Ethereum performed well (+4.2%), with staking yield becoming a differentiating advantage in the "higher for longer" rate environment. Solana dropped below $80 due to a hack on the Drift protocol (resulting in a $285 million loss, the second-largest hack event in Solana's history).
Wintermute stated that Tuesday's deadline for the Strait of Hormuz is a key juncture. The 45-day ceasefire framework represents the most specific de-escalation effort since the conflict began, but the damage to Iranian energy facilities, Gulf refineries, and port logistics has already occurred, and even with a full ceasefire, the pre-war shipping capacity cannot be restored overnight. If the threat of a "power plant day" on Tuesday materializes and Iran retaliates, the oil price risk premium will immediately rebuild.
