JPMorgan Chase highlights two major misjudgments in the market: Energy independence won't save America, and the market is overly optimistic about the situation easing

BlockBeats News, April 7th: Michael Cembalest, Chairman of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, released a new report describing how the US-Iran Gulf conflict has evolved from "eliminating evil" to a situation where all parties suffer. The report points out two major misjudgments that investors have regarding the Iranian situation.

First, the market misjudged the United States' energy independence (as a net exporter) as being able to serve as a "firewall" against a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or an oil price shock. However, this is not the case—fossil fuels still account for 85% of final energy consumption, and a global oil price increase will directly raise domestic prices of crude oil, gasoline, aviation fuel, etc., in the United States by over 100% with high pass-through rates, and the price increase of various hydrocarbons other than natural gas may even exceed that of Europe and Asia.

Second, the market underestimated the cost and effectiveness of Iran's strategy of "holding the global economy hostage," being overly optimistic about the prospect of easing tensions. Iran has found that controlling the strait is cheaper and more effective than imagined, so there is no pressure for a quick compromise.

In the report, Cembalest emphasizes that a rapid shift to renewable energy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels at the current rate would take 10-15 years, which he describes as a "fantasy." Overall, this conflict has exposed the limitations of the United States' military and energy strategy, with no clear winner. Cembalest also reminds investors to be wary of systemic risks.