4 Smart Money Pours $26,900 to Bet the Suez Canal Traffic Won't Normalize Until June

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts have bet $26,900 on "no" regarding the question "Will the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of May?" The current probability of "yes" is 37.5%.

Among these 4 accounts, SwissMiss has a total profit of $56,000 in the geopolitical category; Mr-Krabs has an 81% win rate in the geopolitical category, with a total profit of $66,000; 0x3a86226f has a total profit of $10,000 in the geopolitical category; 0x25012ec7 has a 90% win rate in the geopolitical category, with a total profit of $18,000.

Per the rules, the criteria for a "yes" outcome is a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals in the Strait of Hormuz as published by the IMF PortWatch platform, showing data equal to or above 60 on any date before May 31. The current 7-day moving average on this platform remains extremely low, ranging from 3.7 to 3.29, all below 10.

A recent report by the research firm Citrini indicated that the actual number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is much higher than publicly disclosed data. Due to conflicts causing many commercial vessels to turn off their transponder devices while transiting, the IMF PortWatch platform is currently experiencing frequent underreporting and misreporting of the number of ships.

Iranian officials recently issued a statement regarding new rules for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, establishing a clear screening mechanism, banning passage for ships associated with specific countries or classified as hostile targets, while allowing some whitelisted ships that serve its interests to pass. Most Western and allied countries jointly issued a statement opposing Iran's blockade restrictions, calling for "safe and unhindered passage," and discussed the formation of an escort or diplomatic pressure mechanism.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not speculating on whether the event actually occurs but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xdbade4c82fb72780a0db9a38f821d8671aba9c95;
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee;
0x3a86226f3c57e9845c7acb09c0b28413cc3c4216;
0x25012ec798e4861e38c645df919f86dc3c177e28.