3 high-win-rate accounts each put in $8,000 believing the Strait of Hormuz will not be substantially closed by the end of the month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts have staked $8,000 on "no" for "Will the Bab el Mandeb Strait be substantially closed by the end of this month?", and currently the probability of "yes" is 28.5%.

Among these 3 accounts, 0xc94e45bc has a 100% win rate in the Geopolitics category; 0x4133f8ff has an 83% win rate in the Politics category; 0x2d613c30 has a 74% win rate in the Politics category.

Per the rules, the criteria for a "yes" outcome is a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals in the Bab el Mandeb Strait as published by the IMF PortWatch platform, showing a value equal to or below 10 on any date before the 30th of this month. Currently, the IMF PortWatch-monitored ship 7-day moving average remains around 31 to 33 vessels, staying largely consistent with pre-war levels.

Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict, despite frequent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels leading to a 30-40% surge in Asia-Europe shipping rates and a significant number of vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, the actual transit volume through the Bab el Mandeb Strait has not exhibited the cliff-like drop required by the rule.

With the recent escalation of regional conflicts, the Houthi armed forces have recently issued a clear warning statement emphasizing that if Gulf countries directly intervene in the conflict, they will completely block shipping in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. The Iranian side has also demonstrated multiple times its ability to disrupt the region's supply chain through asymmetric warfare.

The Bab el Mandeb Strait has a complex geographical structure. While the eastern coast is controlled by the Houthi armed forces, who control the western coast of Yemen and possess long-range firepower projection capabilities, the western coast is home to Djibouti and Eritrea, hosting several major overseas military bases, including those of the United States, creating a strong external military balance.

Looking back at the peak of the Red Sea Crisis from late 2023 to early 2024, the ongoing ship attacks only forced some shipping giants to change course, objectively failing to drastically reduce the daily number of transiting vessels through the strait to single digits.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, it is assessed that this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, and there is a tendency to take profits or stop losses at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xc94e45bc1ceee8d0a4f1dda940f779b85de4f946;
0x4133f8ff4b624c1d1b4ddfbf1da803c1e0d4ea5d;
0x2d613c30614b68eada0a37d65bddf3778d981fa7.