Next Week Outlook: Iran Conflict to Continue Dominating Market Sentiment, Fed Meeting Minutes Key Focus

BlockBeats News, April 4th. Despite a slight easing of tensions between the US and Iran over the weekend, the US continued to search for a crew member from an F-15E fighter jet downed by Iran on Friday. Meanwhile, Tehran continued to launch attacks on Gulf Arab states and Israel over the weekend. It was reported that another US military aircraft crashed in the Persian Gulf on the same day. It is evident that both sides will maintain a high level of tension next week, and many parties involved seem to have fully anticipated the entry of US ground forces into Iran.

Aside from the Iran conflict, macro events next week will be dominated by the importance of the Fed meeting minutes, with analysis suggesting that these minutes may confirm a hawkish turn reflected in the dot plot. The specific event schedule is as follows:

Monday 22:00, US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;

Tuesday 15:50-16:30, France/Germany/Eurozone/UK March Final Services PMI;

Tuesday 23:00, US New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations for March;

Wednesday 00:35, 2027 FOMC Voter and Chicago Fed President Evans speech on monetary policy;

Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone February PPI MoM, Eurozone February Retail Sales MoM;

Thursday 02:00, Fed releases monetary policy meeting minutes;

Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims, US February Core PCE Price Index YoY, US February Personal Spending MoM, US Q4 GDP Annualized QoQ Final, US Q4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures QoQ Final, US Q4 Core PCE Price Index Annualized QoQ Final, US February Core PCE Price Index MoM;

Friday 20:30, US March NSA CPI YoY/Core CPI YoY, US March SA CPI MoM/Core CPI MoM;

Friday 22:00, US April 1-Year Inflation Rate Expectations Preliminary, US April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary, US February Factory Orders MoM.

Regarding the CPI data for March released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, this will be the first inflation data reflecting the impact of the war. According to FactSet's consensus expectations, the year-over-year CPI is expected to jump from 2.4% to 3.1% based on the overall data.