Analyst: Bitcoin Derivatives Market Dominated by Bears, Longs Continuously Face Liquidation Pressure

BlockBeats News, April 3rd, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted, stating, "The Bitcoin Position Index is a comprehensive indicator that measures the long/short aggressiveness of the derivatives market, reflecting the current actual open position direction of futures market participants. The index's 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-30d) reached a local high point of +3.0 on March 17th when the Bitcoin price was $73,925, and has since been continuously declining, falling to -3.1 today, reflecting a continued accumulation of short positions. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price dropped from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d moving down in sync with the market price, further confirming a weakening market structure.

The Liquidation Oscillation Index rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has been steadily rising, reaching 18.6% today. This indicates that the market continues to experience forced liquidations on the long side, preventing structural recovery. The red bars dominated by short liquidations have not been seen since October 2025. As long as the 30-day Moving Average (30DMA) remains high and prominent red bars do not return, the pressure on long positions will persist. A downward reversal of the 30DMA would be the first signal of liquidation balance restoration.

The synchronous reversal of these two indicators mutually confirms each other. Bitcoin's price has fallen by about 11% from its peak of $74,883, and the current derivatives market structure does not show any basis for a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs continue to be liquidated, and a short squeeze scenario is almost nonexistent. Current operational stance: risk avoidance. The main downside risk is: if the liquidation pressure persists, and the SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, a bearish pattern will further solidify, and downward pressure on the Bitcoin price to break below $66,000 will intensify."