2 Smart Money accounts each contribute $19,600, anticipating "a Canadian province will hold a referendum to leave Canada by 2027."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, two whale accounts have invested $19.6k in the prediction market Polymarket, buying "Yes" on "Whether any Canadian province will arrange a referendum to leave Canada by 2027," with the current probability of this event being "Yes" at 77%.

On March 31, the Alberta separatist organization "Stay Free Alberta" announced that its independence petition has collected over 177,732 signatures, surpassing the statutory threshold required to trigger a province-wide citizen-initiated independence referendum. The organization has set the target date for the referendum as October 19 of this year.

In terms of the current legislative process and timeline, the organization must submit all signatures to the Alberta Electoral Commission for official verification by May 2. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has expressed opposition to separatism, but against the backdrop of recent western alienation sentiment sparked by federal energy policies, she has welcomed the core group to debate the issue. Smith has also pledged that if the petition signature count is officially confirmed, she will move forward with including the question on the referendum ballot.

Per the settlement rules of this market, if any provincial government in Canada officially arranges a referendum on the province's potential separation from Canada by December 31, 2026, Eastern Time, the event will settle as "Yes." Whether the referendum is merely to establish independence intentions, develop an independence framework, or outright declare independence, and regardless of its ultimate legal status, all meet the settlement criteria.

Note: Based on their past trading profile, the trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur; there is a behavior of taking profits or stop-loss at a certain time point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x2b76c1d12cd928b1d95a6d2c7f1e6f6e7f14edef
0x7e31a5e9c31638483614e9fd9f945bb34692454d

Total Investment: $19.6k
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