Analysis: BTC Officially Enters Bear Market Second Half, Even Final Dip Struggles to Break $45,500

BlockBeats News, April 3rd, Analyst Murphy stated that the on-chain average holding cost of BTC for 1-2 years (yellow line) has crossed the on-chain average holding cost of BTC for 1-3 months (orange line). This signal can be almost 100% certain at the on-chain data level, indicating that BTC has officially entered the second half of a bear market.

In addition, Murphy also stated that the well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo's Bitcoin Continuous Valuation-Delta Difficulty (CVDD) indicator reached $45,410 at the end of last month, only slowly increasing by $506 since February 10th. This reflects that early whales have substantially reduced or almost halted on-chain circulation. CVDD is one of the few indicators in BTC's history that has never failed— the price has always been above CVDD, and the bear market bottom will only infinitely approach it but never fall below. Therefore, even if there is a "final drop," BTC will not drop below around $45,500; theoretically, there is at most a 30% drop, but in reality, it is likely to be much smaller.