CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Could Rebound to $71,500 to $81,200 if Macro Risks Subside

BlockBeats News, April 2nd, according to The Block, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant released a report pointing out that despite continued institutional buying pressure, Bitcoin spot demand is still in a state of "deep contraction." As of late March, the apparent demand dropped by around -63,000 BTC, indicating that selling pressure is still stronger than buying pressure. CryptoQuant noted that "despite institutional accelerated buying, overall apparent demand continues to contract, indicating that retail and other market participants' selling has exceeded institutional incremental buying." This demand contraction has persisted since late November 2025, "confirming that the broader market is still in the chip distribution phase."

Whales holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have turned into net distributors, with a total reduction of approximately 188,000 BTC in the past year, and the 365-day moving average is still trending downward. "Historically, continuous whale negative accumulation has coincided with long-term price weakness. The current reading indicates that selling is still a significant structural headwind." Coinbase premium (tracking U.S. buying interest) also mostly remained negative when Bitcoin fell to the $65,000 to $70,000 range, indicating that U.S. investors have not returned to the market on a large scale yet.

If macro conditions improve, especially if the US-Iran conflict de-escalates, CryptoQuant believes that Bitcoin could rebound to the $71,500 to $81,200 range, with $81,200 being the trader's realized price, which peaked during a bear market rebound in January 2026.