The market no longer buys into Trump's verbal ceasefire, with the probability of multiple US-Iran war events remaining unchanged.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Trump has recently frequently verbally raised expectations for US-Iran talks, stating that he has been in contact with the Iranian side. Today, he once again claimed that the Iranian president had requested a ceasefire, only to be swiftly slapped in the face by the Iranian side. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is "firmly under its control" and that it "will not open up to the enemies of this country due to the absurd performance of the US president."

Multiple prediction markets indicate that Trump's recent verbal statements no longer affect market consensus, including:

The probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by the end of April remains at 38%, still near recent lows, as the market does not believe that a ceasefire will progress rapidly;

The probability of the Strait of Hormuz being open to navigation by the end of April has continuously decreased, now at 20%, also at recent lows. The strait is solidly controlled by Iran and has become an economic warfare tool against the US;

The probability of US ground troops entering Iran by the end of the month remains high, now at 55%, as the US military continues to increase troops in the Middle East.