Polymarket New Market: Will Trump's social media platform be released before April or June?

According to PolyBeats monitoring, a new prediction event about "Whether Trump Mobile will launch a phone before April / June" has been added to the prediction market Polymarket. Currently, the probability of the "Yes" option for "Within April" is 5%, and for "Within June" is 20%.

Recently, two executives of Trump Mobile showcased a redesigned prototype of the T1 phone in a video call with the tech media The Verge. This smartphone, initially announced in June 2025 with a planned shipment in August of the same year, has experienced several delays and has not yet been officially released. Additionally, there has been a significant amount of consumer discussions and controversies online regarding a $100 pre-order deposit that has not been refunded.

Recent discoveries by the media reveal that a device named T1 has been submitted to the Federal Communications Commission in the United States for certification, which is a standard procedure before launching an electronic product. Moreover, the executives showcased a prototype in the recent video call, indicating the existence of a physical device.

Manufacturing a smartphone involves establishing a complex supply chain. Since its announcement, the project has undergone changes in its external design and retracted its initial "Made in America" promotion. Currently, the official website only accepts pre-orders without providing a clear shipping schedule.

Per the settlement rules of this market, whether it is the T1 or any other model of phone under the Trump Mobile brand, it must be made available for actual purchase by the general public before the specified deadline. Any form of official announcement, product showcase, pre-orders, or deposit collection does not count as a valid release. Only when consumers can genuinely place orders and purchase the phone will the market settle as "Yes".
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