Wintermute: If Bitcoin's price movement is cyclical, it could drop to the $50,000 range or higher.

BlockBeats News, March 31st. According to the latest market weekly report from market maker Wintermute, the Bitcoin perpetual futures to spot volume ratio has increased to 15x, while funding rate volatility has dropped to a low for this cycle, indicating that the market leverage is high but with a lack of directional consensus. The current structure is more akin to a "coiled spring," potentially hinting at a larger one-directional move.

Wintermute believes that if there is substantial progress in geopolitical easing and oil prices fall to around $100, short positions could face the risk of being squeezed to $70,000 to $74,000. If the situation remains calm, the $74,000 resistance level may be tested. Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices rise to $120, Bitcoin's price could drop to just above $60,000, and if the cyclical trend is similar, it could drop to the mid to high $50,000s.

A more macro view is that the direction is not crucial here; what matters is the market structure itself. The leverage on the futures contracts is high, fund flows are fluctuating within the narrowest range ever, and volatility is decreasing. Regardless of which way the catalyst eventually leans, the market structure indicates that the resulting volatility will far surpass the levels reflected in current spot, futures, and options prices.