Powell to Speak Tonight: Middle East Situation Adding to Inflation Pressure, Rate Cut Expectations Face Another Test

BlockBeats News, March 30th, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend a public event and participate in a live Q&A session tonight at 22:30 Beijing time. Against the backdrop of ongoing tensions in the Middle East and increased market volatility, this speech is seen as one of the most anticipated macro events of the week.

It is widely expected in the market that Powell may maintain a cautious stance, avoiding giving a clear signal on the rate cut path. With current inflation still above the 2% target and added uncertainty from tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in the short term is rising, reinforcing the expectation of "no rate cut."

Meanwhile, the tense relationship between U.S. President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve continues. If Powell sends a hawkish or wait-and-see signal, the market expects Trump to once again exert pressure, intensifying the policy game.

On the fundamental side, signs of weakness have emerged in the U.S. labor market, with a sharp drop in job additions in February, putting pressure on the economic outlook and putting the Fed in a dilemma of "high inflation + slowing growth." Analysts point out that until the situation in the Middle East becomes clearer, monetary policy will most likely remain in a wait-and-see mode, and market trends will continue to be highly dependent on geopolitical developments and changes in the inflation path.