Ethereum Faces New Leg Down Risk, Analyst Warns of Drop to $1200

BlockBeats News, March 30th. Cryptocurrency analyst Leshka.eth shared a view that the recent Ethereum price action is exhibiting a technical pattern resembling a historical "bull trap" in the short term, suggesting a potential further decline to around $1200, representing a possible 40% drop from current levels.

Technically, the ETH daily chart's Supertrend indicator has previously failed to sustain its "long" signal on two occasions (October 2025 and January 2026), leading to significant retracements of 45% and 48% respectively. A similar setup is now appearing around the critical $1990 level, and a breakdown below this point could trigger another leg down.

Both the fundamental and funding aspects appear weak. On a macro level, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and recession expectations are dampening risk appetite. Additionally, the market has significantly pushed back expectations for a Fed rate cut. On the funding side, the recent outflow of around $300 million from the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF and a 16-month low in on-chain activity are notable.

On-chain data reveals that the number of large wallets (≥10,000 ETH) has plateaued since the end of 2025. Addresses holding between 1,000 to 10,000 ETH and 100 to 1,000 ETH, typically classified as "whale" and "shark" addresses, show no significant increase in holdings, indicating a overall distribution and wait-and-see sentiment.

Against a backdrop of limited strong buying support, if key support levels are breached, the price of ETH may face further downward pressure.