Ethereum Could Face Another Leg Down Risk, Analyst Warns of Potential Drop to $1200

BlockBeats News, March 30, Crypto analyst Leshka.eth expressed the view that the recent price trend of Ethereum is exhibiting a technical pattern reminiscent of a historical "bull trap" in the short term, with a potential further downside risk aiming for $1200, representing a potential decline of about 40% from the current level.

Technically, the Supertrend indicator at the daily level of ETH has previously had two "long" signals (October 2025 and January 2026), both of which failed to sustain, subsequently triggering significant pullbacks of 45% and 48%, respectively. A similar structure is currently appearing around the key level of around $1990, and once broken, it may trigger a new round of accelerated decline.

Both the fundamentals and funding conditions are weak. At the macro level, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and recession expectations suppress risk appetite, while the market significantly delays its rate cut expectations for the Federal Reserve; in terms of fund flows, the recent outflow of about $300 million was observed from the US Ethereum spot ETF, and on-chain demand dropped to a 16-month low.

On-chain data shows that the number of large holdings addresses (≥10,000 ETH) has plateaued since the end of 2025, with "whale" and "shark" addresses in the 1,000 to 10,000 ETH and 100 to 1,000 ETH ranges showing no significant signs of accumulation, presenting an overall distribution and wait-and-see stance.

In the background of a lack of strong buying support, if the key support level is breached, the ETH price may face further downside pressure.