Polymarket: Probability of "Ethereum Market Cap Drops Out of Top 2 This Year" Rises to 59%

BlockBeats News, March 29th, according to Cointelegraph, Polymarket data shows that the probability of Ethereum falling out of the top two cryptocurrencies by market cap in 2026 has increased from 17% at the beginning of the year to 59%, with its main competitor being the Tether stablecoin USDT. Over the past five years, Ethereum's market cap has increased by about 11.75% to around $240 billion; meanwhile, USDT has grown by 622.50% during the same period, with a market cap exceeding $184 billion. The growth of XRP and USDC has also surpassed Ethereum.

The growth logic of Ethereum and Tether is completely different: Ethereum's market cap depends on the rise in ETH price, while macro headwinds in 2026—including U.S. tariffs, a potential U.S.-Iran war, and fading expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts—continue to suppress ETH's price. On the institutional demand side, the AUM of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF has dropped from $31.86 billion in October last year to $11.76 billion in March this year, a decrease of about 65%. Tether, on the other hand, benefits from investors seeking stability and liquidity in market turbulence—precisely the flow of defensive funds in a risk-averse environment. The total market cap of stablecoins has now reached $310 billion, a substantial increase from about $5 billion in 2020, with Tether accounting for 58% of that.

Technically, Ethereum's current trend is showing a "bear pennant" pattern. If the price effectively breaks below the lower trend line, the ETH price could drop to around $1,250 by June or even further.