Bitcoin Price Below $60,000: Breakeven Cycle May Extend to 2027, Whale Selling Pressure Intensifies Downside Risk

BlockBeats News, March 28th, according to Cointelegraph's report, the latest data shows that if Bitcoin further drops below $60,000, the time for the market to recover to its all-time high may be delayed until 2027.

Analysis points out that Bitcoin has retraced about 48% from its peak around $126,000 in 2025. Following historical patterns, for every additional 10% decline, the average extension of the recovery period is about 80 days. Currently, if $60,000 is the bottom of this stage, it is estimated to take about 300 days to complete the recovery; but if it continues to dip to the range of $40,000–$45,000, the overall retracement will expand to over 60%, and the recovery period may extend to about 440 days, pushing the timeline to post the second quarter of 2027.

On-chain indicators also show that the bottom has not been confirmed yet. The Blockchain Coincidence Index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, higher than the historical bottom range (around 0.12–0.15), indicating that there is still potential for further downward movement.

In terms of fund flows, whale selling continues to intensify the pressure. Data shows that the selling pressure from large holders has reached the highest level in nearly 18 months, while both spot and derivatives market liquidity are weakening simultaneously. Institutional views believe that the current market is in a deep adjustment period, and if the macro environment continues to be tight (including high or even increasing interest rates), it will further slow down the pace of the crypto market recovery.