Morgan Stanley Warns: If US-Iran Conflict Persists Until June, Oil Price Could Surge to $200

BlockBeats News, March 27th, Morgan Stanley said that if the Iran conflict persists until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could reach a record $200 per barrel. Analysts, including Vikas Dwivedi, noted in the report that if the conflict extends into the second quarter, it will lead to historically high prices. They outlined a 40% probability of this scenario unfolding. Analysts stated that due to the massive scale of the disruption, the strait's closure "has sent crude and product prices soaring." An alternative forecast with a 60% probability suggests that the conflict may end by the end of this month.

Brent crude is set to post a historic monthly gain in March as the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has rocked the oil-rich Middle East. In this conflict, Tehran authorities have overseen and almost entirely blocked the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting the vital flow of energy to the global economy. Analysts stated in a report on March 27th that if the strait remains closed for an extended period, "prices will need to surge to levels high enough to destroy historically large global oil demand." The timing of the strait's reopening and the physical damage to energy infrastructure are key factors in assessing the long-term impact on commodities. (Jin10)