Bitunix Analyst: Delayed war risks and liquidity tightening converge, locking BTC within the 65K–72K liquidation range

BlockBeats News, March 27th. Global markets are showing a structure of「surface stability, internal imbalance.」The passage of EU–US trade agreements, partial easing of U.S. sanctions, and delays in strikes on Iranian energy facilities aim to maintain policy and diplomatic stability. However, military resources are already being repositioned toward the Middle East, suggesting geopolitical risks are not fading but merely being deferred in pricing. At the same time, Turkey』s large-scale gold selling, rising trade costs in Europe, and Japan signaling potential FX intervention indicate that major economies are simultaneously tightening liquidity and stabilizing domestic systems, marking a shift from free capital flows toward regional defense.

More importantly, the inflation narrative has been re-anchored. Federal Reserve officials are clearly shifting focus from employment to inflation, signaling reduced policy tolerance for easing. Combined with persistent uncertainty in oil prices and geopolitical risks, expectations for rate cuts continue to be priced out. Rising Japanese yields and the yen approaching intervention levels further increase the risk of capital repatriation and reversal of carry trades. In this context, a stronger dollar is no longer just a safe-haven move, but a reflection of global liquidity withdrawal, pushing markets into passive deleveraging and asset repricing.

In the crypto market, BTC has fully transitioned into a reflection of liquidity structure. Price continues to oscillate within a broad 65K–72K range, with volume distribution showing clear supply pressure above 70K and ongoing passive absorption near 65K. CVD is gradually rising without price making new highs, indicating the presence of active buying but lacking follow-through—more absorption than trend formation. Meanwhile, large trader long/short ratios remain low, reflecting cautious positioning without directional leverage buildup.

This structure aligns with the current macro environment: capital is not exiting, but neither is it willing to take directional risk. As a result, price remains trapped in high-liquidity zones, driven by passive matching and repeated liquidation cycles. In the short term, if war risks remain「delayed but unresolved」and rate expectations continue tightening, BTC is likely to maintain high-frequency range volatility, sweeping liquidity between 65K and 72K for position redistribution. A true breakout will require alignment across key macro variables, rather than being triggered by a single event.