Analyst: Trump's "5-Day Ceasefire" About to End, Bitcoin Support Level Facing Test
BlockBeats News, March 26th, according to Decrypt, the US Department of Defense is preparing for a "deadly strike" against Iran, Bitcoin once again dropped below $70,000, with a 3% decrease in the past 24 hours. The trigger for this drop was Axios's report that the Pentagon is developing a military plan against Iran, including options such as ground troops and a "large-scale bombing campaign." Analysts stated that the five-day pause in Trump's strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure expires on Friday, making Bitcoin's support level very fragile.
Glassnode stated that the cost basis of short-term holders (purchased in the past month) is around $70,200, serving as the current key support level; the resistance is between $82,200, based on the cost basis of 1 to 3 months holding. However, the scale of buy-side accumulation at this support level is limited, and the "likelihood of breaking below this level should not be ignored until more substantial buying is established."
Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey Group, stated that the $70,200 level is more likely to be retested repeatedly rather than broken through in one step. The current price action shows "more like defensive accumulation rather than confirming a new trend-driven market." He also warned that the current rebound is mainly driven by leverage rather than sustained spot buying, making the price susceptible to a rapid decline once sentiment reverses.
On a macro level, the VIX futures' intraday volatility surged to 388.2 the previous month, the highest in nearly six months, about four times the average level usually associated with market panic. However, over the past three months, the S&P 500 has only had two trading days with daily gains or losses exceeding 1.75%. The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the volatility priced in the futures and options markets is much higher than the actual volatility of the S&P 500, suggesting that "uncertainty is at an unprecedented level."
